It has been an impossible story to miss in recent weeks. The UK is running out of Guinness. Diageo have cited huge consumer demand as the reason. They are ‘proactively’ managing supply in order to try and keep the situation under control.
At first this seemed like it might be a scarcity sales tactic. But stockpiles of kegs have depleted at depots, pubs have seen orders limited and deliveries have been missed. We are now in a situation where many taps are running dry at the busiest time of the year. Pubs who can source stock are ordering extra, which is only exacerbating the situation further.
On paper this is marketing gold for the Dublin stout. The free publicity has been huge and customers only want to split the G more, now they are getting told they might not be able to. But will the frenzied Guinness shortage actually cause headaches for the brand in the UK, longer term?
Despite dominating the category, Guinness isn’t the only nitro stout on the market. Far from it. There has been a huge flurry of activity from breweries both big and small to plug the stout gap this festive season. At the macro end of the industry Heineken reps have been touting Murphy’s, a brand of considerable pedigree in Ireland but one that they haven’t pushed in the UK seriously for over a decade. ABInbev have whipped into venues to extol the virtues of Camden Stout. That virtue being that it is available and won’t run out. Asahi have launched a nitro version of Fuller’s Black Cab Stout. At the other end of the industry a whole plethora of indie local and regional breweries are scrambling to get their nitro stouts seen as a viable alternative in their area. Two weeks ago many pubs were happy to hold their nerve and see if Guinness could turn it around, but as Christmas has got closer, more and more have had to decide what their preferred alternative is going to be, in order to keep a stout on the bar over the festive period.
There is a risk here for Diageo. So many pub companies and publicans have felt for years that they have no choice but to stock Guinness. Even as the price of a keg has steadily risen to eye watering levels, operators have decided to sacrifice margin rather than risk being the only pub in town without it. Now, in the busiest week of the year those same operators are being forced to try alternative brands. These stouts will almost universally come in at a cheaper price point per keg, some significantly so.
Likewise drinkers are being forced to consider the alternatives. Many operators have feared in the past that customers will vote with their feet and walk out of their venues if they don’t have Guinness. But when the shortage is affecting all venues up and down the country, that isn’t really an option for the die hard black stuff fans. Many drinkers may try the replacement and discover that their preference is for dark beers in general, not just Arthur’s version.
If those pubs stock alternative stouts begrudgingly, those drinkers try them begrudgingly, and, in actuality, it works better for both of them, it may make the thought of the swap becoming permanent a bit more palatable.
Short term I don’t expect to see much market change from this, most pubs will be relieved to go back to Guinness in the new year, most drinkers will be happy to see it back on the bar. But the genie is out of the bottle now. Next time Diageo force through another price rise (likely next April), struggling landlords may look back at Christmas 2024 and decide that competitor stout that came to the rescue at the last minute, might be worth another try. It will be fascinating to look back in twelve, eighteen or twenty four months time and see if the great Guinness shortage of 2024 was a blip, or the start of a more significant market shift.
Beer with Tim 
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